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Earth Research Institute December Climate Meeting
December 7, 2018 @ 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm
30 min talk: Dr. Marcia Zilli: Accessing Brazilian agriculture, forestry, and land use cover change with GLOBIOM-Brazil model
Abstract: Accessing Brazilian agriculture, forestry, and land use cover change with GLOBIOM-Brazil model
Under the scope of the Paris Agreement, Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledges to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 43% below 2005 levels by 2030. Because 46% of Brazilian GHG emissions come from land use, land cover change, and deforestation, part of the NDC pledge can be fulfilled by eliminating illegal deforestation and restoring degraded areas. The main challenge in reaching this target is to reconcile forest preservation with the agricultural sector expansion, responsible for more than 24% of the national GDP. To evaluate the possibilities through which Brazil can reconcile protection and production we employ the GLOBIOM Brazil model, a partial equilibrium economic model that provides a globally consistent national modelling framework with detailed representation of the agricultural sector and spatially explicit land use change. The use of this model helps identify pathways through which Brazil can fully enforce its Forest Code, especially the elimination of illegal deforestation and the implementation of compensatory mechanism in degraded areas, consequently curbing the loss of native vegetation and reducing GHG emissions. Results indicate that the full enforcement of the Forest Code can lead to more than 12Mha of forest regeneration, reducing the GHG emission due to land use cover change by 1GtonCO2eq by 2030. In addition to this, it is necessary to also evaluate how changes in temperature and precipitation can directly affect the agricultural productivity. By including the impacts of climate change on productivity, GLOBIOM Brazil simulations suggest that despite a negative impact in soy beans productivity, market interactions can still guarantee an increase in Brazilian production. Future developments of the GLOBIOM Brazil model will also include the impact of policies regarding biofuels use, particularly ethanol, as well as aspects related to food security and water availability.
Bio Marcia Zilli is an Environmental Engineer with a PhD in Geography from the University of California, Santa Barbara, received in 2017. Her PhD research investigated trends in austral summer extreme precipitation in Brazil, associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone, as well as how climate models represent these trends. Currently she has been working with RESTORE+ project that aims at addressing Food-Land-Energy nexus related to restoration or utilization of degraded/marginal land in Indonesia and Brazil. In Brazil, the project will enhance established land monitoring and modelling capabilities and support Brazil’s contribution to meeting the “Bonn Challenge”. The project will identify degraded areas, assess restoration options and explore trade-offs associated with implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code. As part of the Brazilian team, her role is to address how the impact of climate changes in agricultural productivity will affect land use competition and water availability in Brazil.
15 min talk: Ms Xiaofang Feng : Observational Analysis of Long-Term Changes of the Summertime South Asia High
Abstract: : Observational Analysis of Long-Term Changes of the Summertime South Asia High
Assessment of the impacts of global warming is complicated by the internally generated multidecadal variability since longer-term externally forced trends are embedded in the background of the multidecadal variability.Using the reanalysis datasets during 1958-2015, this study investigates the changes of the summertime South Asia high (SAH) on the climate change and interdecadal scales.It is found that the two centers of the SAH are associated with different patterns of the linear trends over the period 1958-2015, with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Iranian Plateau and an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the north of the Tibetan Plateau. While the anticyclonic circulation over the Iranian Plateau was weakening, there has been little intensity change over the Tibetan Plateau in the background of global warming. The spatial pattern of the SAH on the interdecadal scale is similar to that of the long-term trend. The long-term and interdecadal variations of the SAH over the Tibetan Plateau are associated with different warming patterns. The upper-tropospheric anomalous anticyclone in the long-term trend is an atmospheric response to the greater warming rate over the central Asia. On the interdecadal time scale, the anomalous anticyclone is associated with the mid-level warming over the Tibetan Plateau. The interdecadal variations of the SAH are statistically correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO).
Ms. Feng is a visiting PhD student at the Dept. of Geography, who is working under supervision of Drs. Qinghua Ding and Dr. Charles Jones.